Ten years after the UK stumbled into a rushed referendum that polarised the nation and unleashed turmoil, a warning emerges from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Authorities and voters entered unwittingly Brexit and the similar could occur with a referendum on a unified Ireland, triggering disturbances for which nobody is prepared.
That represents the warning from two prominent journalists from either side of the Irish border who have collaborated to analyse the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to establish a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Structures Unprepared
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have determined that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are extremely unprepared for a possibly contentious and monumental referendum.
"The key takeaway of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that events can come out of the blue and can gather momentum very quickly," O’Toole remarked. "In my opinion that the political architecture of our region remains highly fragile."
Released Volume Aims to Encourage Dialogue
The pair have examined the political, economic and societal rationales for any structural alteration in a volume, The Case For and Against Unification, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to provoke discussion on the issue with a roadshow of speaking events that will bring them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What troubles everybody, or must worry everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said O’Toole.
"We do not want a national vote on a yes-no, vague proposition whose implications have remained undefined because then you end up with an extremely polarised community where people who have lost are resistant to losing and the people who have won lack clarity exactly what it is that they have won."
Constitutional Provision
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland official is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unification if it appears likely that a majority would support.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists argue such a time is looming, and a non-profit called pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions downplay the likelihood, leaving it unclear if and when there might be a national vote.
Lack of Informed Dialogue
Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unity has hidden the shortage of serious debate, stated McBride.
"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the idea but the actual thinking which might go beyond that to realise it hasn't for the most part happened. Much has gone on in universities but very few elected officials or advocates are willing to participate even with the fundamentals. As an example, which kind of country might be preferred? Centralised? Federal?"
Volume's Strategy
In the book, none of the commentators endorses unity or the existing arrangement. They writes two essays that aim for impartiality in detailing the rationale for a unified Ireland and the case opposing it, assembling financial and societal statistics, historical precedents and constitutional models.
Arguments cover national emblems, duties, medical care, retirement funds, national debt responsibilities and the threat of unionist unrest. The goal is to inform and provoke conversation.
"There's huge interest in the issue but there is still lacking a debate," stated O’Toole. "Discussion implies an acceptance of the notion that there may exist valid points on both sides."
Dual Referendums
A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate claim they prefer unification but oppose paying higher taxes or adopting a alternative symbol to acknowledge unionists' British culture.
"Policymakers in Ireland does need to establish what the offer from Irish nationalism is other than just stating: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," remarked the commentator.
Possibility of Referendum
McBride considers a referendum in his generation is possible and that it might occur suddenly. "There might be just a mad or a poor or a feckless secretary of state who declares: 'Let us proceed and resolve it.'"
Each of the nationalists and unionists have plausible, legitimate arguments, he stated. "One side will win here and somebody will in the end be defeated but each side has possesses valuable insights to learn from the opposing viewpoints."
Call for Wider Dialogue
Westminster must engage with the dialogue, said O’Toole. "This involves the United Kingdom. It's a British question as much as it is an Irish issue."
